Analysis: China’s foreign trade “Darkhorse” is expected to continue to 2021
China’s foreign trade in 2020 will be a dark horse in the global trade force, as the world faces an economic winter hit hard by the new crown disease. Although the timing of the outbreak remains uncertain, global demand is still on the path to recovery, and the strength of China’s foreign trade is expected to stabilise 2021.
With the gradual introduction of the global vaccine, the continued resumption of production capacity and the continued implementation of the first phase agreement between China and the 2021, analysts are generally optimistic about China’s foreign trade situation, but it noted that concerns remain: the extent of the global economic recovery is constrained by the progress of the epidemic, it is not yet known whether the virus mutates again to negatively impact supply chains in industrial chains, and uncertainty about the momentum of counter-globalization and trade protectionism.
The outlook for the 2021 as a whole is positive, and the risk of increased exchange rate volatility remains a concern. They believe that a large appreciation of the renminbi may put some pressure on China’s exports, but expect the repair of external demand and the resonance of global trade to still benefit exports; and a stronger renminbi in turn will increase domestic willingness to import, coupled with China’s sustained economic recovery led to a strong rebound in domestic demand, will drive imports further higher.
On the other hand, the epidemic has slowed the rate of global capacity expansion and caused capacity contraction in some countries, such as the US, which means that after the epidemic the problem of global excess capacity will be significantly better than before.
The Ministry of Commerce of the People’s Republic of China recently held a 2020 national business teleconference to make it clear that the 2021 should persist in opening up to the outside world in a broader, broader and deeper level, making full use of both domestic and international markets and resources, we will promote the coordinated development of domestic and foreign demand, imports and exports, the introduction of foreign capital and foreign investment, and stabilize the basic market for foreign trade and foreign capital. (end)